Reading competence is foundational for academic success, yet long-term trajectories across secondary education and beyond remain understudied. Prior longitudinal studies have predominantly focused on shorter period or younger samples (e.g., Richmond et al., 2024; Ricketts et al., 2020). Integrative models such as the Direct and Indirect Effects Model of Reading (DIER; Kim, 2017) conceptualize reading competence as emerging from the interplay of cognitive, metacognitive, linguistic, and motivational components, which may contribute differentially to initial reading competence and its subsequent growth. This study examined reading competence development from Grade 5 to Grade 12, its cognitive, linguistic, metacognitive, and motivational predictors, and whether the development and predictor associations differ between students who left the school system before Grade 12 (school leavers) and those still attending school.
We used longitudinal data from Starting Cohort 3 of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS; N=4,395), with reading competence assessed at four measurement points. Latent growth curve models were estimated in Mplus. A quadratic growth specification, selected based on model comparison, was regressed on 15 predictors including reading speed, reasoning, vocabulary, declarative metacognition, reading motivation, reading amount, reading self-concept, and socioeconomic and demographic covariates. A multi-group model compared school leavers and non-leavers.
Reading competence showed substantial average growth (M=0.36, SE=0,01, p<.001), with a decelerating pattern (M=-0.01, SE=0,00, p<.001). The intercept variance was significant (variance=1.33, SE=0.08, p<.001), indicating substantial interindividual differences in initial reading competence. Significant positive predictors of the intercept were vocabulary, reading speed, reasoning, declarative metacognition, reading self-concept, reading amount, intrinsic reading motivation, gender, parental education, and school type; fewer and smaller effects emerged for the linear and the quadratic slope. Non-leavers showed a significantly higher initial reading competence (M=0.48, SE=0.04) than school leavers (M=-0.39, SE=0.05), χ²(1)=238.40, p<.001. Growth-related parameters and predictor associations showed no robust group differences after correction for multiple comparisons.
These findings suggest that cognitive and metacognitive resources, alongside sociodemographic factors primarily shape initial reading competence rather than its subsequent growth. The intercept gap between school leavers and non-leavers points to early reading competence as a marker of later educational pathways, suggesting that interventions may be most effective early in secondary schooling.